Sizing up Alabama's NCAA tournament resume as Ole Miss stock falls

TUSCALOOSA, Alabama ? Ole Miss missed out on a chance to remain tied for second place in the Southeastern Conference when it lost 69-67 Wednesday at Texas A&M.

Is that good news for Alabama?

Yes ? and no.

The Crimson Tide (16-8, 8-3 SEC) is tied for second place with Kentucky, which suffered a big blow Tuesday when star freshman forward Nerlens Noel suffered a season-ending knee injury in a loss at first-place Florida.

If the Wildcats lose more regular-season games, is that good news for Alabama?

Yes ? and no.

The catch is that there are two standings to track: 1) wins and losses; and 2) RPI. And recent history shows that 2) is more important than 1).

Here is the top of the SEC standings:
Florida (10-1)
Alabama (8-3)
Kentucky (8-3)
Ole Miss (7-4)
Missouri (7-4)

Here is the top of the SEC in order of RPI (according to WarrenNolan.com, which is updated daily):
Florida (No. 3)
Missouri (No. 34)
Kentucky (No. 43)
Ole Miss (No. 48)
Alabama (No. 61)

Two years ago, Alabama finished with the second-best record in the SEC, but it did not receive an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament.

Remember? The knock on the Crimson Tide was its low RPI (No. 80), plus its low strength-of-schedule ranking (No. 114) and its 8-6 nonconference record with no signature victories.

On the plus side, the Tide went 12-4 and won the SEC Western Division, but the division was considered far weaker than the SEC East. Georgia, also considered a bubble team, received a No. 10 seed. The Tide defeated the Bulldogs twice ? in the last game of the regular season and in overtime of the second round of the SEC Tournament ? but Georgia had a No. 39 RPI.

The SEC no longer is split into divisions, so a second-place finish should be more meaningful this year. But the conference?s RPI is No. 8 this season. It was No. 6 two years ago.

Alabama?s current RPI is No. 61. Its strength-of-schedule ranking to date is No. 65. Its nonconference record is 8-5. Its biggest nonconference conquest is a 77-55 victory over Villanova, which currently has an RPI of No. 64. Alabama?s record against teams with top 50 RPIs is 1-3. The victory is over No. 43 Kentucky. Losses to Dayton, Mercer and Tulane hurt the Tide?s resume. And a loss last week at Auburn could be the killer.

If Kentucky loses more games and its RPI falls, Alabama?s NCAA tournament resume would suffer.

The same goes for Ole Miss. The Rebels have lost four of their past five games. It could be in the Tide?s best interest for Ole Miss to win all of its remaining regular-season games except for a March 5 home game against Alabama. The Rebels? RPI still is No. 48. That?s down three spots from the beginning of the week. The Tide could use another victory over a team with a top 50 RPI. But if the SEC is destined to get only three or four teams into the NCAA tournament, Alabama needs to finish with a better RPI than as many SEC teams as possible.

See the dilemma?

If Alabama ends the regular season in a second-place tie with Kentucky, the Tide wins the tiebreaker because of its victory over the Wildcats. But that isn?t likely to sway the NCAA tournament selection committee. More likely to matter is the fact that Kentucky is the defending NCAA tournament champion.

By the way, New Mexico had an RPI of No. 74 in 1998 and received a No. 9 seed as an at-large team. That appears to be the baseline.

Earlier this week, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi projected four SEC teams in the NCAA tournament. Ole Miss was projected as a No. 10 seed. That was before it lost at Texas A&M. If the Rebels fall out of the bracket, the Tide could rise, but it also is possible that the SEC could slip to only three teams in the field.

Source: http://www.al.com/alabamabasketball/index.ssf/2013/02/sizing_up_alabamas_ncaa_tourna.html

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